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Overview of Climate Change Impacts PowerPoint Presentation

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Slide 1 - Overview of Climate Change Impacts David A Warrilow Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Climate change and sustainable development New Delhi, 7-8 April 2006
Slide 2 - Widespread impacts on the natural world already evident Widespread melting of glaciers globally Increased river flow into the Arctic 8% loss of Arctic sea-ice in last decade Melting permafrost Rising sea levels 1-2 cm per decade Earlier spring activity in plants and animals
Slide 3 - Recent economic losses substantial UK floods, autumn 2000 Insured loss £1bn European floods 2002 37 deaths $16bn direct costs European heat-wave 2003 35,000 deaths approx $13.5bn direct costs Caribbean Hurricanes 2005 More than 2000 deaths $76bn insured loss alone $300bn economic losses Hurricane Wilma, courtesy of NOAA
Slide 4 - Extreme events are increasing in size/frequency European hot summer of 2003 over 35,000 deaths risk of such a summer 2-4 times greater with greenhouse gases. Hadley Centre
Slide 5 - Temperatures are predicted to continue to rise (1.4 to 5.8C by 2100, IPCC AR3) Observed and predicted European summer temperatures. 2003 type heat-waves will be common by 2040
Slide 6 - Impacts of climate change will be severe and widespread For India we found: marked increase in both rainfall and temperature over the 21st century projected. maximum increases in rainfall (10 to 30%) may occur over central India. temperatures projected to increase by 3 to 4C towards the end of the century. but behaviour of monsoon not well simulated. Change in annual mean surface temperature by the 2080s compared to 1961-1990, from the IPCC A2 scenario.
Slide 7 - Climate Change a will affect all sectors and countries
Slide 8 - Agriculture vulnerable to temperature increases and rainfall changes A 2 C rise in temperature decreases Indian wheat yield - Up to 6% in sub tropical areas - 17-18% in tropical areas For rice a 2 C rise projected to reduce yields by 10-16% and a 4°C rise led to a 21-30% reduction. Sensitivity to monsoon - 19% rainfall deficit in 2002 reduced Indian GDP by 3%
Slide 9 - Human Health also vulnerable More incidences of malaria in areas that are already malaria-prone, and introduced into new areas. Sensitive to the arrival of the monsoon. Transmission Window of Malaria in different states of India a) base case, b) with climate change
Slide 10 - Sea-Level rise and storm surges Indian study showed: Mean sea level rise for Mumbai slightly less than 1mm/year and a possible decrease at Chennai, but no info on land movements. Storm surges show increase in number of high surges under climate change. Cyclone frequency and strength increases in the Bay of Bengal, particularly in the post-monsoon period. Frequency Distribution of Maximum surges associated with each cyclone (2050)
Slide 11 - Climate system instabilities far reaching effects tipping points hard to predict Examples: Ocean circulation Ice sheet behaviour Carbon Cycle Methane Hydrates Acidification Population crashes
Slide 12 - The direct effects of CO2 CO2 affects the acidity of the ocean - it is already increasing. Negative impacts on coral reefs and plankton and hence the food chain. May also affect the carbon cycle. CO2 helps plants to grow, but quality of yield may be reduced. But growth also limited by water and nutrient availability.
Slide 13 - Impacts depend strongly on socio-economic development pathway. Project developed four socio-economic scenarios in line with national plans for development, and associated projections for population and economic growth Framework for visions of socio-economic change for India
Slide 14 - Adaptation an essential but limited response Adaptation recognised as an essential response but not a substitute for mitigation No one solution Not an easy option Easier for new build It has its limits
Slide 15 - Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Climate Change - Exeter conference 2005 For different levels of climate change what are the key impacts? What would such levels of climate change imply in terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations and emission pathways required to achieve such levels? What options are there for achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gases at different stabilisation concentrations in the atmosphere? See www.stabilisation2005.com
Slide 16 - How much climate change is too much?
Slide 17 - Stabilisation requires urgent pro-active measures Business as usual (A2)
Slide 18 - Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations and climate system inertia
Slide 19 - Conclusions Climate change impacts are already being seen Climate change will affect all sectors and all countries Above 1-3 C rise many impacts could become critical. System changes could generate major impacts but hard to predict. Sea level rise a significant long term issue Ocean acidification a serious direct impact of CO2 Adaptation essential – but has its limits Need to limit climate change – 2 C? Without stabilisation of greenhouse gases at a level which avoids dangerous anthropogenic climate change sustainable development will not be possible
 

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