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This is a thorough analysis of Tom Brady's track record compared to a set of elite quartebacks including: Elway, Manning, Montana, Marino, Brees, and Favre.

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sports | sport analytics | football | Tom Brady

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Is Tom Brady the greatest quarterback PowerPoint Presentation

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Is Tom Brady the greatest quarterback Presentation Transcript

Slide 1 - Is Tom Brady the greatest quarterback? Gaetan Lion, December 23, 2021
Slide 2 - Source: Pro Football Reference.com The Players The above seven quarterbacks include the most common names listed as among the best quarterbacks. Within this elite group, Brees and Favre had long careers with 20 seasons, coming close to Brady with 21 seasons and counting. 2
Slide 3 - The parameters 3 During regular season: Yards Yards per game Touch Downs Quarterback Rating Sacking Play offs record: Play offs Super Bowl games Super Bowl wins
Slide 4 - Yards during regular season 4
Slide 5 - By 34 years old, Brady stands in 5th place in terms of yards passing. 5
Slide 6 - Same data as on previous slide. See how far behind Brady (~ 40,000 yards) is vs. Manning (~ 55,000 yards), Marino, Brees, and Favre. 6
Slide 7 - Brady’s long term consistency pays off. And, he leads the pack on this same metric when extended over entire careers. 7
Slide 8 - When including complete career, Brady is now number 1 with 83,338 yards. But, Brees is still pretty close with 80,358 yards. 8
Slide 9 - Yards Per Game during regular season 9
Slide 10 - Graph is visually a bit noisy. All we can tell is that Brady is lasting longer than anyone else, still active and proficient at 44. While everyone else called it quit by 41. Some were almost destroyed. Brees retired after severe injuries including two broken ribs and a punctured lung. 10
Slide 11 - Brady differentiates himself by playing longer and maintaining his top level into old ages. Many of the other quarterbacks experienced some deterioration in performance in their later years. Brady does not. At 44 he is as good or better than at 34. 11
Slide 12 - Touch Downs during regular season 12
Slide 13 - Again, Brady lags by a lot many of the other players by the time they are 34. By 34, Brady completed 300 touch down passes. But, Manning is already at 400 and Brees at 360. 13
Slide 14 - Same data as on previous slide. Manning, Marino, Brees, and Favre are way ahead of Brady by the time they were respectively 34 years old. 14
Slide 15 - When you include complete careers, Brady as usual soars to the top. His persistence, consistency, and agelessness are unmatched. 15
Slide 16 - Again, Brees is the one that comes nearest Brady with 571 touch downs vs 617 for Brady. As mentioned earlier, Brees was in no position to add a single touch down after his career-ending injuries. Meanwhile, Brady is super healthy and keeps on trucking at 44. 16
Slide 17 - Quarterback Rating Source: Pro Football Reference.com 17
Slide 18 - This graph is a bit noisy. Let’s look at the next set of individual graphs. 18
Slide 19 - The first thing that jumps at you is Brady’s longevity. He is already 3 years older than anyone else at their respective retirement. And, Brady is still active. Also, you can see how Brady maintains his skill level into “old” age. His quarterback ratings in his 40s are just as high as in his 30s. 19
Slide 20 - Brady maintains his skill level into his 40s. Many of the other quarterbacks experienced a normal age curve decline in their later years. 20
Slide 21 - Sacking During Regular Season 21
Slide 22 - You would think that Brady’s longevity would be due to his being sacked less often than others. Oddly enough, this is not the case. Except for Elway and Favre, at any age Brady has been sacked as often or more than the others. 22
Slide 23 - Brady’s sacking record is hard to explain. How can a 44 year old survive in good shape such a brutal game while suffering so many sackings? One factor is that he actually is a surprisingly big guy. At 6’4 and 225 pounds, he is the 2nd largest quarterback within the group. He is far bigger than Brees (6’0; 209 pounds) who pretty much got demolished into retirement while incurring far fewer sackings than Brady. 23
Slide 24 - Play offs 24
Slide 25 - Again Brady’s longevity and sustained competence is extraordinary. However, if you look at the 34 year old mark, he was not a world beater yet. He was much behind Manning and Favre. And, tied with Montana. 25
Slide 26 - That’s the kind of picture that leaves you with no doubt that Brady is the greatest. 26
Slide 27 - Super Bowl Games 27
Slide 28 - In number of Super Bowl Games, Brady was always hot. By the time he was 25 he pretty much stayed in the lead all along, and just kept on trucking. Brady’s late-career, after most of his counterparts have retired, is just about as productive than the latter during their entire respective careers… a real stunning accomplishment! 28
Slide 29 - Another spectacular picture of Brady’s dominance and longevity. 29
Slide 30 - Super Bowl Wins 30
Slide 31 - Again this is all Brady now. 31
Slide 32 - During Montana’s era, you can see how many thought he was the greatest quarterback. But, Brady came along and eclipsed Montana’s records on all counts by a wide margin (yards, touch down, etc.). 32
Slide 33 - Frequencies and Probabilities Using the binomial distribution we can figure out how much quarterbacks’ results were due to skills vs. just randomness. 33
Slide 34 - This table just describes the respective track records of the players. Brady has played in 21 seasons, been in 18 play offs, 10 Super Bowl games, and won the Super Bowl 7 times. This table just translates the above record in % frequencies. Brady made it to the play offs: 18/21 = 85.7% of the time. When Brady made it to the play offs, he made it to the Super Bowl: 10/18 = 55.6% of the time. When Brady made it to the Super Bowl he won: 7/10 = 70% of the time. Brady won the Super Bowl in one third of the seasons he started: 7/21 = 33.3% or 85.7% x 55.6% x 70% = 33.3%. 34
Slide 35 - 35 Setting up the Binomial Distribution to calculate probabilities of winning number of Super Bowls. The binomial distribution parameters include: The number of trials. In this example we use 20 seasons as the number of trials; and The proportion of a winning outcome. This is 1 Super Bowl win divided by 32 teams which comes out to 0.03125. With these two parameters, using the binomial distribution we can calculate the probability of winning x number of Super Bowls. We will use this binomial distribution to figure out how much of the quarterbacks’ records are due to skill vs. randomness. The probability of interest is shown in the yellow column. It is the probability of winning a specific number of Super Bowls or more just due to randomness.
Slide 36 - 36 We used an average of 20 seasons for these 3 players. Brees and Favre’s outcomes (1 SB win) are not far off from expected (close to 50% probability they could have won 1 SB or more just due to randomness). But, Brady’s record is insanely good. There is a 0.00% chance that Brady’s record could be due to randomness. That’s skill! We used an average of 17 seasons for these 4 players. Marino’s record of 0 wins is the most likely random outcome. Manning and Elway already did pretty well as there is less than a 10% probability that their record was due to randomness. Montana is the outlier. There is only a 0.16% probability that his record of 4 SB wins would be due to randomness.
Slide 37 - A closer look at the two “clutch” quarterbacks Tom Brady vs. Joe Montana 37 Brady and Montana have performed much better during the post-season than the other 5 quarterbacks. Looking at Brady’s record. Having played in 21 seasons, there is a 0.00% probability that he could have made it to 18 play offs just due to randomness. Being in 18 play offs, there is only a 0.02% probability that he would have made it to 10 Super Bowl games due to randomness. And, being in 10 Super Bowl games there is a 17.19% probability he could have won 7 Super Bowls or more due to randomness. Montana’s respective probabilities are also very impressive. But, they are not as good as Brady’s in terms of making the play offs and Super Bowl games. Of course his record of winning all 4 Super Bowl games he was in… is hard to beat. But, overall Brady is still the overarching champion. And, he is not done!
Slide 38 - 38 Conclusion During the regular season and up to 34 years old, Brady’s performance does not stand out. It actually lags much behind Manning, Marino, Brees, and Favre. However, when you extend regular season records over entire career, Brady’s longevity and consistency, including maintaining his high-level into “old age” has no parallels. When you go into the post-season, here there is no contest. You clearly see why Brady is the undisputed greatest quarterback. He has truly distanced himself. And, he is continuing to perform into “old age” at or near his highest level.