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Is the 3-point Game Taking Over NBA Basketball Presentation Transcript

Slide 1 - November 22, 2021 Gaetan Lion is the 3-point-game taking over nba basketball?
Slide 2 - 3-pts shots as a % of total points scored have risen quite dramatically from less than 3% in the early 80s to 34% in the most recent two seasons. However, 2-pts shots still account for over 50% of total points. Based on current trends, you would expect that 2-pts shots will still account for a much greater % of total points scored vs. 3-pts shots for the foreseeable future. Is the 3-points-game taking over NBA basketball? … Not yet. 2 Data source for this entire presentation is: basketball-reference.com
Slide 3 - Has NBA shooting gotten better over the years? … not much if at all… Free throws (1 pt) success rate has remained nearly perfectly flat since beginning of time series in 1979 at slightly under 80%. 3-pts success rate has remained pretty flat at around 35% since the mid 90s. 2-pts success rate is the only category that has seen a mild increase in success rate. However, the increase is a bit more pronounced if we focus on the period from the 1997 – 1998 season onward. 3
Slide 4 - The number of 3-points attempts per game has risen dramatically 4 The 3-points scoring was introduced in the NBA in 1979. So, it took a while for the players and coaches to adjust their skills and strategies to leverage the benefit of this 3-points line. With time, the NBA has more aggressively adopted 3-points shooting. In the most recent two seasons, average number of 3-points shot attempts per game was 35 or above. Meanwhile, that number remained under 20 until 2013- 2014.
Slide 5 - Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance? Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data 5 Whether you look at number of points scored, or team rankings, or Z values (scaling number of points by number of standard deviation above or below the NBA average), the results are very much the same. The 2-pts performance has a much higher correlation with the overall team performance than the 3-pts performance. The 2-pts performance explains twice as much of the variance between team performance than the 3-pts performance does (R Square values).
Slide 6 - During the 2020 – 2021 NBA season, the top 10 teams in 2-pts shots had much higher average rankings at 10.5 vs. the top 10 teams in 3-pts shots. However, 2-pts shots performance is not that deterministic either. The Spurs, number 1 on 2-pts shots rankings, are only 17 out of 30 overall. Look at the Bucks, they are outstanding in 3-pts shots, only second to the record breaking Warriors. But, in overall ranks the Bucks are only 16 out of 30. The Timberwolves who come in a close 3d in 3-pts shots, are a distant 22nd in overall rankings. Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance? A second look… Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data and focusing on the top 10 overall 6
Slide 7 - Difference in ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts when focusing on the top 10 NBA teams 7 We used the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test to evaluate whether the difference in average and median ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts is statistically significant. When we focus on the Median that reduces the influence of outliers such as the Warriors that are ranked 1st overall and also in 3-pts rank, the difference between the two is pretty large at 4 ranks (Median is 13.5 for the 3-pts rank and 9.5 for the 2-pts rank associated with a 2-tail p value of 0.13… not far from statistical significance at the alpha 0.10 threshold).
Slide 8 - Relationship between overall rank and 3-pts rank looking at all 30 NBA teams during 2020 – 2021 season 8 If the 3-pts ranking was identical to the overall ranking, the regression trend line (red line would be on a perfect diagonal). And, the regression equation would be equal to: 3-pts rank = 1.0(Overall rank) + 0. And, R Square would be equal to 1. Instead, the 3-pts rank indicates it has a really weak relationship with the Overall rank, as its Overall rank coefficient at 0.39 is closer to 0 than 1. If it was 0, it would indicate there is no relationship between the two. The slope of the red regression line would be 0. The regression line would be horizontal. As is, this regression line is not that far off from indicating there is little to no relationship between the two rankings.
Slide 9 - Comparing the 3-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking with the 2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking 9 As shown, the 2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking relationship (right hand graph) is a lot stronger than the 3-pts one (on the left and also on the previous slide).
Slide 10 - Can the Warriors survive a post-Curry era? 10 Reviewing the data, it appears that they may be able to do just fine. 2-pts still very much are the bread-and-butter of the game. When Curry does not play well, the Warriors score fewer 3-pts points and more 2-pts points. When Curry scores 40 or even 50 points per game, it makes for really great headline. But, for the Warriors whether Curry scores 40 points, or if Curry does not play well, another two or even three different team mates cumulatively score these 40 points that Curry would have scored makes no difference for the team. As we speak that is exactly what happened last night as described in the Marin IJ article.
Slide 11 - How to counter Stephen Curry? 11 Let’s say in a reasonable game Stephen Curry throws 11 3-pts shots attempts, and succeeds 40% of the time, resulting in scoring about 13 points. The opposite team can counter Curry’s 3-pts performance by either raising their 2-pts success rate to 60%. Or they can counter partly by making one or more two 2-pts shots attempts vs. Curry’s 3-pts attempts. All above, appears very feasible for an NBA team. This exact same logic can be applied on how the Warriors can compensate for Curry when he is not playing. I have explored much more complicated model structures with little success. At the end of the day, this very simple format seemed the most informative.
Slide 12 - Stephen Curry’s 3-pts record 12 This serves as a good reference for the simple model presented on the previous slide.
Slide 13 - Stephen Curry Section: How good is Curry? How many good years left does he have? 13
Slide 14 - How good is Curry? Looking at 3-pts success rate… 14 Except for the 2019 – 2020, when Curry suffered a severe left-hand injury, his record in 3-pts success rate has been much superior to the NBA average. Curry’s skill superiority is also in his ability to score baskets from close to mid-court and beyond (“from way downtown”). So, Curry has a much higher success rate while shooting often from far greater distance than other players. That’s this combination that makes Curry a magician. This amazing feat (scoring from great distance) unfortunately does not leave any footprint in the scoring data.
Slide 15 - 15 Given that Stephen Curry is still active and has a few good years left (33 years old), he is just about assured to pass Ray Allen, and stand in first place. James Harden, in 4th position, is still active (32 years old). And, is also likely to rise up the rankings.
Slide 16 - 16 The main point from this first table is that contemporary players such as Curry and Harden score many more 3-pts baskets per game than the other three players that belong to older generations of the game. Directionally, exact same explanatory narrative as above. The contemporary players make so many more 3-pts attempts. That’s why they are so much more productive in scoring 3-pts baskets. When it comes down to precision (success rate), Kyle Korver towers over the field. But, as shown this superior performance in this one area really does not matter, because Korver went for so fewer 3-pts shots than the contemporary players (Curry and Harden).
Slide 17 - How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success per game 17 The figures are shown as an index that uses the average over the ages ranging from 28 to 33 years old. And, it pegs this average at a value of 100. Kyle Korver’s performance remained strong and consistent until retirement. Reggie Miller’s performance held up very well until 36 years old. Ray Allen’s performance dropped abruptly at 34 years old, but remained steady at that level or better until retirement.
Slide 18 - How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success rate 18 As shown, the players 3-pts success rate holds up very well as they age
Slide 19 - How many good years left does Curry have? 19 Based on the aging track record of Allen, Miller, and Korver we could expect Curry to play at near top form until 36 years old. That’s another 3 seasons, as he is 33 years old. If he remains healthy and uninjured, he could still be a relatively formidable 3-pts shooter at 37 or even 38 years old.
 

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